Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 2021 | 11344 | 50537 | 380 | 105 | 69 | 117 |
| April 14 2021 | 11354 | 50585 | 380 | 105 | 65 | 107 |
| April 15 2021 | 11361 | 50675 | 382 | 105 | 72 | 105 |
| April 16 2021 | 11373 | 50709 | 383 | 106 | 77 | 101 |
| April 17 2021 | 11383 | 50799 | 384 | 106 | 77 | 108 |
| April 18 2021 | 11391 | 50848 | 385 | 106 | 80 | 102 |
| April 19 2021 | 11391 | 50876 | 387 | 106 | 71 | 102 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.9 | 9.9% | 7 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.07% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.9 | 28.2% | 20 | 0.15% | 28 | 0.21% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 2.0 | 19.7% | 14 | 0.07% | 21 | 0.1% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.3 | 18.3% | 13 | 0.1% | 20 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.6 | 8.5% | 6 | 0.06% | 10 | 0.1% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.4 | 9.9% | 7 | 0.06% | 8 | 0.06% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.4 | 4.2% | 3 | 0.03% | 6 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.1 | 1.4% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| All ages | 0 | 7.6 | 100% | 71 | 0.07% | 102 | 0.1% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 2021 | 7236 | 29690 | 243 | 94 | 51 | 55 |
| April 14 2021 | 7249 | 29733 | 244 | 94 | 64 | 67 |
| April 15 2021 | 7258 | 29786 | 246 | 94 | 73 | 76 |
| April 16 2021 | 7259 | 29806 | 247 | 94 | 62 | 74 |
| April 17 2021 | 7263 | 29854 | 247 | 94 | 59 | 78 |
| April 18 2021 | 7263 | 29900 | 247 | 94 | 54 | 78 |
| April 19 2021 | 7263 | 29912 | 247 | 94 | 45 | 78 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.4 | 8.9% | 4 | 0.05% | 7 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.1 | 17.8% | 8 | 0.1% | 15 | 0.18% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.9 | 13.3% | 6 | 0.08% | 12 | 0.17% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.0 | 17.8% | 8 | 0.1% | 13 | 0.15% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 1.4 | 26.7% | 12 | 0.15% | 18 | 0.23% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.6 | 8.9% | 4 | 0.04% | 5 | 0.05% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.2% | 1 | 0.01% | 4 | 0.05% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 4.4% | 2 | 0.03% | 4 | 0.06% |
| All ages | 0 | 5.9 | 100% | 45 | 0.07% | 78 | 0.12% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 2021 | 5608 | 19664 | 254 | 76 | 67 | 91 |
| April 14 2021 | 5614 | 19697 | 256 | 76 | 63 | 90 |
| April 15 2021 | 5625 | 19719 | 257 | 76 | 74 | 98 |
| April 16 2021 | 5635 | 19738 | 257 | 76 | 79 | 103 |
| April 17 2021 | 5637 | 19766 | 257 | 76 | 68 | 96 |
| April 18 2021 | 5648 | 19798 | 258 | 76 | 76 | 97 |
| April 19 2021 | 5655 | 19812 | 259 | 76 | 66 | 104 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 0.3 | 7.6% | 5 | 0.09% | 9 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 1.0 | 13.6% | 9 | 0.17% | 11 | 0.2% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 0.9 | 12.1% | 8 | 0.18% | 10 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 2 | 1.0 | 13.6% | 9 | 0.17% | 15 | 0.28% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 0.7 | 13.6% | 9 | 0.18% | 15 | 0.3% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 1.0 | 12.1% | 8 | 0.12% | 14 | 0.21% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 1.7 | 19.7% | 13 | 0.21% | 22 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.6 | 7.6% | 5 | 0.08% | 8 | 0.13% |
| All ages | 7 | 7.1 | 100% | 66 | 0.15% | 104 | 0.23% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 2021 | 12522 | 56278 | 394 | 80 | 62 | 116 |
| April 14 2021 | 12530 | 56376 | 394 | 80 | 62 | 118 |
| April 15 2021 | 12537 | 56440 | 395 | 80 | 69 | 118 |
| April 16 2021 | 12539 | 56494 | 395 | 80 | 57 | 95 |
| April 17 2021 | 12547 | 56575 | 396 | 80 | 60 | 87 |
| April 18 2021 | 12547 | 56623 | 396 | 80 | 52 | 79 |
| April 19 2021 | 12547 | 56638 | 396 | 80 | 43 | 79 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 1.4 | 23.3% | 10 | 0.08% | 14 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 0.7 | 14% | 6 | 0.04% | 12 | 0.07% |
| 20-29 | 0 | 0.4 | 9.3% | 4 | 0.02% | 14 | 0.07% |
| 30-39 | 0 | 1.1 | 25.6% | 11 | 0.08% | 15 | 0.11% |
| 40-49 | 0 | 0.3 | 11.6% | 5 | 0.04% | 7 | 0.05% |
| 50-59 | 0 | 0.1 | 7% | 3 | 0.02% | 11 | 0.08% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.3% | 1 | 0.01% | 1 | 0.01% |
| 70+ | 0 | 0.3 | 7% | 3 | 0.02% | 5 | 0.04% |
| All ages | 0 | 4.6 | 100% | 43 | 0.04% | 79 | 0.07% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 2021 | 43107 | 335783 | 1349 | 290 | 789 | 1070 |
| April 14 2021 | 43204 | 336203 | 1354 | 290 | 806 | 1135 |
| April 15 2021 | 43302 | 336703 | 1361 | 290 | 827 | 1152 |
| April 16 2021 | 43389 | 337107 | 1366 | 290 | 874 | 1152 |
| April 17 2021 | 43441 | 337550 | 1366 | 292 | 871 | 1123 |
| April 18 2021 | 43506 | 337963 | 1370 | 292 | 798 | 1108 |
| April 19 2021 | 43559 | 338303 | 1370 | 292 | 742 | 1084 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 5.0 | 6.2% | 46 | 0.08% | 70 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 18 | 17.1 | 21.6% | 160 | 0.23% | 222 | 0.31% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 18.4 | 27.2% | 202 | 0.19% | 287 | 0.28% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 10.9 | 15.1% | 112 | 0.15% | 162 | 0.21% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 8.7 | 12.1% | 90 | 0.14% | 141 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.6 | 11.3% | 84 | 0.13% | 128 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 3.3 | 4.9% | 36 | 0.07% | 59 | 0.11% |
| 70+ | 0 | 1.1 | 1.6% | 12 | 0.02% | 15 | 0.03% |
| All ages | 53 | 71.1 | 100% | 742 | 0.14% | 1084 | 0.2% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 2021 | 586632 | 2778854 | 28244 | 6690 | 7339 | 10000 |
| April 14 2021 | 587561 | 2783730 | 28337 | 6695 | 7684 | 10366 |
| April 15 2021 | 588504 | 2788678 | 28393 | 6698 | 8320 | 10792 |
| April 16 2021 | 589213 | 2792707 | 28462 | 6703 | 8143 | 10626 |
| April 17 2021 | 589940 | 2796463 | 28523 | 6711 | 8143 | 10647 |
| April 18 2021 | 590458 | 2800452 | 28557 | 6709 | 7615 | 10581 |
| April 19 2021 | 590831 | 2803121 | 28594 | 6710 | 6896 | 10647 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 31 | 53.0 | 7% | 485 | 0.08% | 752 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 74 | 121.4 | 16.6% | 1142 | 0.15% | 1741 | 0.23% |
| 20-29 | 58 | 127.3 | 17.8% | 1225 | 0.16% | 1877 | 0.25% |
| 30-39 | 66 | 123.4 | 16.9% | 1166 | 0.15% | 1751 | 0.23% |
| 40-49 | 64 | 99.9 | 13.6% | 938 | 0.13% | 1492 | 0.21% |
| 50-59 | 52 | 105.9 | 14.7% | 1015 | 0.12% | 1606 | 0.2% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 63.6 | 8.6% | 593 | 0.08% | 929 | 0.12% |
| 70+ | 14 | 37.1 | 4.8% | 332 | 0.05% | 499 | 0.08% |
| All ages | 373 | 731.6 | 100% | 6896 | 0.12% | 10647 | 0.18% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.7 | 20.6 | 10 | 7.6 | 7.9 | 11.5% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12.1 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 13.9% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23 | 7.1 | 6.4 | 23.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 10.9 | 6.6% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19.8 | 31.2 | 27.6 | 71.1 | 79.7 | 15.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18.3 | 23 | 24.8 | 731.6 | 733 | 15.8% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.9 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.66 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-05-10 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 6019"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges